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The Baltics are ready to invest in solar​

By Armanda Vilciņa

By the end of 2025, the Baltic countries plan to supplement their energy production portfolio with approximately 1125 megawatts (MW) of solar power, with the most ambitious goals set by the Lithuanians.

 

In May 2024, 430 MW of solar power was installed in Latvia, and 680 MW in Estonia, which is significantly less than in Lithuania, which could already boast of 1165 MW of solar power this year, according to data from The Ministry of Climate and Energy of Latvia. Future plans are also more ambitious for the Lithuanians, who intend to install approximately 635 MW of solar power in the next year and a half.

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As a result of this, at the end of 2025, the total installed solar power in Lithuania could reach 1800 MW. Meanwhile, the plans in Latvia and Estonia are much more modest - by the end of 2025, neither country is will likely to reach 1000 MW in terms of installed solar capacity. Latvia lags behind In recent years, solar power has developed the fastest in Lithuania because, after the closure of the nuclear power plant, Lithuanians needed additional energy, says Baiba Lace, head of Ignitis Renewables Latvia. “Solar and wind farms have also been developed in Estonia, but Latvia has started moving towards renewable energy resources later than the two neighbouring countries. Historically, almost 50% of electricity in Latvia has been produced by hydroelectric power stations, so Latvia has started to think about other renewable energy resources only recently. At the same time, we have to remember that in the future, along with the move towards the green course of the European Union, the average electricity consumption in the Baltic States will triple. For this reason, we will also have to increase the volume of renewable energy acquisition and various electricity generation resources in Latvia, which means that the activity of investors will only increase,” says B. Lace. She says that Ignitis Renewables plans to invest approximately 700 million euros in Latvia by 2030, implementing solar, wind and hybrid farm projects with a total capacity of 700 MW. “Our projects are currently in very different stages of development - some farms are already under construction, while other projects are only at the initial research stage. It is important to emphasise that the renewable energy farms implemented by Ignitis Renewables are an important step in promoting the energy independence of the entire Baltic region. These projects will significantly increase the amount of electricity produced from renewable resources, reducing the Baltic countries dependence on electricity imports and providing affordable green electricity for all citizens and businesses,” claims B. Lace. Ambitious goals Currently, the Baltic States are in a dynamic stage of development, and in the coming years we will see increasingly large solar energy farms in Latvia, says Ilvija Boreiko, the board member of Latvenergo. “A similar situation can be observed in the other Baltic countries, where activity in the construction of solar power plants started a bit earlier. In general, solar energy is an excellent form of power generation especially in the summer period, but to be independent we also have to think about different types of power generation which can ensure energy production throughout the year. We believe that all forms of energy generation are important and when developing solar farms, other capacities should not be forgotten,” claims I. Boreiko, adding that Latvenergo has ambitious strategic goals in the development of renewable energy resources. “Smaller solar farms with connection to the distribution network can be developed faster, so the first 100 MW in Latvia will be made up of 13 smaller solar farms, while larger solar farms with connection to the high-voltage network in Latvia can be expected in 2026. If we talk about Lithuania, it should be noted that currently in this country we have seven solar farm projects in various stages of development, while six have already been put into operation. Meanwhile, in Estonia, we recently commissioned a solar farm with a capacity of 7 MW, and at the end of July we reported on a solar farm in Kuusalu with a capacity of 17.4 MW,” says I. Boreiko. Combines technologies One of the most active players in the Baltic solar energy market is Enefit. Rihards Kotlers, a member of the company's board, notes that currently Enefit's portfolio of energy production assets includes 75 MW of commissioned solar park capacity, which is expected to be supplemented by new parks with a total capacity of 97 MW by the end of 2025. "The most technologically versatile project is the Sopi - Tootsi hybrid farm in Estonia, which combines solar and wind generators. In this way, the plot of land is loaded more efficiently, as it is built with complementary technologies. By combining solar, wind and storage technologies, the near-constant generation capacity typical of fuel-fired generation can be achieved,” thinks R. Kotlers. He points out that, in general, interest in developing solar farms has grown significantly in the Baltics in recent years. “This has been facilitated by a number of different aspects, including the low maintenance costs of solar farms, the energy crisis, the rapid technological leap, the availability of technologies and the relevance of the green course. The pursuit of energy independence also continues to motivate all market participants to choose alternative and simple energy production solutions. On the one hand, it is satisfying to observe that the Baltic States are becoming more and more energy independent and are setting new records for the amount of renewable energy generation every month. At the same time, we should understand that this market needs thoughtful and sustainable regulations. Also, the situation in the Baltic region is made more challenging by the planned synchronisation with Europe, which in 2025 envisages disconnection from the energy networks of Russia and Belarus. This means that system operators will need to be able to balance electricity supply and demand using only local capacity and enhanced cross-country connections,” reminds R. Kotlers. The future looks bright Natural gas price spikes and consequently volatile electricity prices were a compelling stimulus for investments in solar power generation, thinks Juris Ozolins, energy expert. “As usual in the Baltics, the awakening started in Estonia, which was followed by powerful acceleration in Lithuania and gentle development in Latvia. So far, according to Transmission System Operators (TSO) predictions, in 2024 we must reach 303 MW of solar power in Latvia, 757 MW in Estonia and 1165 MW in Lithuania. Actually, in June 2024 TSO’s measured already 330 MW of solar energy in Latvia, 737 MW and 977 MW in Estonia and Lithuania respectively. This is a very good achievement and gives the penetration rate of solar in electricity national consumption 26% in Lithuania, 13% in Latvia and 31% in Estonia. Meanwhile the combined rate in the Baltic States is 24%,” claims J. Ozolins, adding that for the result of the efforts to merge wind and solar on a common plot of land or water we still must wait for a while. “Connection cost reductions might be substantial and give further rate of return improvements. For the Baltic States to become balanced for imports and exports, additional efforts to harness solar power should be taken in any of the countries. The Lithuanians did a lot, and by inertia, can easily achieve more. The same goes for Estonia, but the Latvians need to at lest triple their capacity. This is the question of security of supply and economic stability and, hopefully, even growth,” reminds J. Ozolins.

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