Photo: Armīns Janiks, Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Latvia
Set to fly high
Drones are transforming modern warfare in Ukraine and beyond. Taking on the lessons, the Baltic States aim to boost their defence capabilities by promoting the local drone industry, establishing 'drone armies' and setting up a 'drone wall'.
by Alexander Welscher
Once seen as a highly promising technology with wide-ranging applications and a multitude of commercial uses across various industries, drones have recently proved to be particularly disruptive in the defence industry. In recent years, unmanned aerial vehicles have rapidly evolved into an easily accessible, weaponised technology for military operations that can be deployed with minimal training and at a fraction of the cost when compared to conventional complex weapon systems.
Drones are small and cost much less than a battleship or tank, but punch well above their weight and have changed modern warfare and the way battles are fought – with adversaries seeking to outpace each other in developing ever more advanced drone systems. In particular, the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine has put a global spotlight on the proliferation of drones that are being used with great success hundreds or even thousands of times a day on the battlefield for reconnaissance or to carry explosives, turning military conflicts into a cat-and-mouse game of defence, detection and concealment. Even when there is a lull in fighting, soldiers are in constant danger as the technology has made battlefields more transparent. Drones are the 'eyes' on the front line and at the same time unlock new offensive capabilities. The ability to deploy them remotely and from afar in contested areas significantly enhances both tactical and strategic decision making. The Ukrainian front and Baltic conclusions Both sides have been leveraging the readily available technology and have become adept at using it for battlefield operations. While Ukraine has turned drones into tactical tools for surveillance and reconnaissance, precision strikes on distant targets and the disruption of Russian forces, Russia has used large swarms of Iranian-made kamikaze combat drones for strikes on military and civil infrastructure across Ukraine. Due to their ability to bring devastation out of the skies, developing sophisticated detection equipment and counter-drone techniques have become a major focus to defeat adversarial drones. Given their military potential, interest in drones is growing fast elsewhere. Not least because they are quite easy to operate and use as weapons. Commercial unmanned aerial vehicles can, without much effort, be outfitted with explosive ordnance to damage critical infrastructure in wartime and beyond, while effective options to counter and neutralise them are currently still underdeveloped. For the time being, there is a stark contrast between the simplicity of mass-producing and launching drones and the complexity of developing effective countermeasures against them. Drawing on Ukraine’s first-hand experience, more and more countries are investing in drone technology and counter-drone measures. Among them are also the Baltic States which want to strengthen their military capabilities to fend off threats from neighbouring Russia and Belarus by integrating drones and anti-drone capabilities into their armed forces as quickly as possible. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are also set to produce and purchase locally made drones of different capacities and electronic warfare equipment to support Ukraine, which will be delivered to the Ukrainian Armed Forces – both as bilateral military aid and as part of the so-called Latvia-led Drone Coalition. Ramping up drone production In a move to boost production of the local defence industry, Latvia has announced at the end of May that it would establish a “drone army” and would allocate some 20 million euros this year to develop and strengthen its drone capabilities. The sum includes both the creation of infrastructure and the purchase of drones worth 10 million euros from Latvian companies, which will gradually increase their production volumes. The initiative follows a similar earlier move by neighbouring Lithuania, which announced it would allocate 10 million euros to Lithuanian drone manufacturers. At the end of July, the government in Vilnius added extra 20 million euros for this year to purchase combat and reconnaissance drones for the Lithuanian Armed Forces. Little is known about the technical development of the drones, but there is an active and intensive collaboration between the government, military and defence industry to advance their application in the Baltics. Latvia has opened a new testing ground for drones at Sēlija military training range where local drone companies and members of the Drone Coalition will be able to regularly test their unmanned aerial vehicles and equipment. Estonia will soon follow suit with a drone training facility at the Nurmsi airfield near Paide, which is due to be completed by the end of the year and will be available to both the Estonian Armed Forces and NATO allies. In addition, drone pilots are to be trained at various levels in the defence sectors of both countries. Lithuania has gone even a step further and in late May presented a drone capability development plan. Measures planned in the so-called Lithuanian UAV Ecosystem include the establishment of a drone competence centre at the Lithuanian Military Academy and training facilities where interested citizens will be taught basic drone piloting skills. The goal is that about thousand people per year will complete courses to operate and control civil drones, and later on will also have the opportunity to be trained as combat drone pilots. Stepping up their defence capabilities and the protection of their external borders with the help of drones, the Baltic States and other countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank have also agreed to develop a “drone wall” stretching from Norway to Poland. While details such as funding, timeline and technical aspects of the ambitious project have not yet been provided, the idea is to use drones to monitor the border area to maintain surveillance, track illegal migration and combat smuggling, as well as to prevent possible provocations and influence activities along the entire border with Russia and Belarus.